Since gaining formal independence from Sudan in 2011, following an overwhelming referendum in favour of secession, South Sudan has yet to conduct its first elections. Like a nation stuck in a revolving door, the elections expected in 2015, 2018, and 2022 were postponed due to ongoing conflict and the failure to implement key provisions from the peace deals. As a result, the transitional period has now stretched to nearly 13 years, much like a rubber band pulled to its limit. South Sudan’s readiness to hold free, fair, transparent, credible, and verifiable elections by the latest target date of December 2024 has also been called into question by AHEAD Africa partners.
The date for the South Sudan elections was initially announced on 5 July 2024 by South Sudan’s National Election Commission (NEC) Chairperson, setting expectations for an election period within a six-month timeframe. However, as key requirements for maintaining election integrity remained unaddressed and unlikely to within this period, AHEAD Africa partners issued a statement in July 2024 advocating that the ‘finish line’ should once again slip further into the future. Thankfully, on 14 September 2024, South Sudan’s NEC officially extended the transitional period by two more years, with 2026 as the year for elections. This decision and the challenges that led to it were forecasted by electoral experts during a webinar hosted by AHEAD Africa partner, the East and Horn of Africa Election Observers Network (E-HORN) titled ‘‘Navigating The Crossroads: Analysis of South Sudan Election Preparedness’’.
The webinar highlighted how any postponement should be based solely on technical grounds, not political ones, as Aleu Garang, Director of the Mediation Support Unit at the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Eastern Africa, repeatedly emphasised during the aforementioned webinar. Assuming they take place, as we look forward to the 2026 elections, what are these technical challenges AHEAD Africa identified ahead of the 2024 elections that need to be addressed over the next two years?
Legal framework
Similar to building a house without a blueprint, South Sudan’s Elections Commission set the date for the 2024 elections without adhering to the stipulations of South Sudan’s National Elections Act and Article 1.2.5 of the 2018 Peace Agreement, which state that elections should only be held after a permanent Constitution has been finalised, passed, and signed by the President. While holding elections with a Constitution in place would bring integrity and credibility to the electoral process, Galdino Ochama George Ojok, Executive Director of the South Sudanese Network for Democracy and Elections, questions whether this is the best approach as “waiting for a Constitution will further delay elections, and we want elected representatives to create a people-driven one”, as he rejects a politically motivated Constitution drafted by those currently serving their parties’ agendas.
In addition to neutrality, independence is a fundamental principle for safeguarding the integrity of elections. However, the credibility of the National Elections Commission resembles a house of cards, precariously built on the appointment of commissioners through political party nominations rather than a merit-based, competitive process and lacking bylaws to govern its structure and processes. Coupled with the lack of an independent judiciary, these conditions make it impossible to guarantee fair, transparent, and credible elections.
Census and voter register
‘‘Who do they truly represent?’’ Jackline Nasiwa, Executive Director at The Center for Inclusive Governance Peace and Justice (CIGPJ) asks herself live during the webinar, referring to the 332 legislative seats assigned by the National Elections Act. Without a Constitution that clearly defines constituencies and an updated census and voter register, ensuring fair representation in the electoral process becomes as difficult as reading a book in the dark. Although there is a previous voter registry, we can’t verify its efficiency and ‘‘to legitimise the elections, we need a fresh register and census, as required by the peace agreement’’, explains Alimure Ali Awuda, Election expert at Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung South Sudan.
Resources
At the end of the day, everything boils down to money, and for South Sudan this is $233 million. This figure, set by the South Sudan National Election Commission, highlights the reality that behind every democratic process lies a hefty but worthy price tag. However, the government had released only $5 million by the time the elections were officially postponed, just three months before they were expected, severely limiting the Electoral Commission’s ability to effectively manage the electoral process. As we look ahead to the anticipated 2026 elections, will this situation see any improvement? The answer might be disheartening as ‘‘The government’s ability to meet its electoral obligations is hindered by the deep economic crisis the country faces, unlikely to change soon as the country is not factoring into its own economy’’, explains Aleu Garang, Director of the Mediation Support Unit at The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Eastern Africa, when asked if South Sudan is stuck in a hamster wheel.
The only way forward may be through international support from partners and donors. However, for this to occur, ‘’we need a clear timeline for when these initiatives can technically take place’’, adds Christopher Gitari, Senior Transitional Justice Advisor at the South Sudan Monitoring and Evaluation Commission. Otherwise, without sufficient financial resources, there are significant constraints on allocating the necessary infrastructure, especially at the local level, and running proper staff recruitment and training.
Security
How can voters be encouraged to participate in elections when South Sudan’s National Security Law contains draconian provisions, such as allowing for arbitrary arrests without a warrant? This creates a climate of fear among the electorate, compounded by the absence of national reconciliation, a lack of military unification, and the close ties between political parties and military factions. This situation requires urgent attention, along with the need for police and judicial readiness to address electoral issues, ensuring that elections can be carried out in a peaceful and safe environment.
Inclusion
Despite acting as a bridge for the people, civil society organisations (CSOs) in South Sudan have been excluded from the decision-making table, much like a half-finished game of musical chairs, as the Parties unilaterally make decisions about elections. However, “in a country marked by civil wars and diverse political actors, consulting all stakeholders is vital for consensus,” asserts Alimure Ali Awuda, Election Expert at Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung South Sudan, while acknowledging that valid dissent may still arise.
Now, the question arises: Is civil society prepared to take its place at the table? “Civil society is ready to participate in election roadmap negotiations, establish benchmarks, and seek implementation guarantees,” affirms Galdino Ochama George Ojok, Executive Director of the South Sudanese Network for Democracy and Elections. It’s undeniable that political dialogue must prioritise national interests and this is where civil society plays a critical role in amplifying the people’s voice.ground. And when we speak of the people, we must remember that after 21 years of war, many citizens remain illiterate or find themselves cut off from key democratic processes since the last referendum in 2011. Therefore, civic education has become the backbone of the upcoming elections in South Sudan.
In conclusion, if conducted under the aforementioned conditions, there is a significant risk of renewed conflict, as the principles of democracy, peace, and stability in South Sudan cannot be secured. Elections should only be undertaken when all necessary legal, logistical, and security measures are in place to ensure a free, fair, and credible process. Will these conditions be met before 2026? How can we ensure that they are not postponed again?
